Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2044 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 2044 LAS 06:34 → SAN 07:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 775 LAS 17:24 → SAN 18:42 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2044 Southwest	LAS 06:34	SAN 07:49	9%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 1403 Southwest	LAS 07:24	SAN 08:41	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
QX 2168 Horizon	LAS 07:00	SAN 08:20	19%	4%	1.3%	no record
QX 2482 Horizon	LAS 20:22	SAN 21:42	26%	6%	1.9%	no record
OO 3324 SkyWest	LAS 08:28	SAN 09:50	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1762 Southwest	LAS 10:32	SAN 11:48	33%	5%	0.8%	no record
QX 2365 Horizon	LAS 17:28	SAN 18:48	33%	7%	1.5%	no record
QX 2165 Horizon	LAS 12:28	SAN 13:46	34%	7%	1.4%	no record
WN 2317 Southwest	LAS 21:49	SAN 23:06	35%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 2397 Southwest	LAS 22:44	SAN 00:02	36%	7%	0.8%	no record
QX 2213 Horizon	LAS 15:53	SAN 17:13	37%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	39%	11%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
WN 3168 Southwest	LAS 11:14	SAN 12:32	39%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2187 Southwest	LAS 19:35	SAN 20:52	40%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 1483 Southwest	LAS 12:49	SAN 14:06	44%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	LAS 16:40	SAN 17:56	44%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2399 Southwest	LAS 15:14	SAN 16:31	44%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2394 Southwest	LAS 13:49	SAN 15:06	44%	8%	0.8%	no record
F9 1469 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:50	SAN 20:06	46%	14%	1.1%	67%worse than usual
WN 775 Southwest	LAS 17:24	SAN 18:42	47%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON