tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2709 Southwest LAS 11:20 TPA 18:38 30% 5% 0.8% no record
WN 1860 Southwest LAS 16:54 TPA 00:10 37% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 7h 56m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:06 → IAD 07:33UA 284 1h 27m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 8h 26m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:43 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301 7h 43m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 6h 44m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 2h 38m Los Angeles LAX 09:52 → TPA 17:43UA 392 8h 43m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 12:47 → TPA 17:05DL 2264 7h 46m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:58 → IAH 06:17UA 2009 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 6h 47m 88% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:07 → EWR 07:51UA 406 3h 56m Newark EWR 11:47 → TPA 14:53UA 601 11h 46m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:05 → CLT 21:35AA 2470 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → TPA 00:42 +1AA 1773 7h 37m 73% 48%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:58 → DEN 16:56UA 1323 1h 06m Denver DEN 18:02 → TPA 23:47UA 1961 6h 49m 69% 48%
FrontierDetails → LAS 14:53 → DEN 18:00F9 3540 59m Denver DEN 18:59 → TPA 00:36 +1F9 2746 6h 43m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON