Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 43 Alaska	LAX 07:11	ANC 11:23	17%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 09m Portland	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	7h 22m	92%	75%
Alaska Details →	LAX 14:01 → PDX 16:26AS 1315	1h 20m Portland	PDX 17:46 → ANC 20:32AS 1455	7h 31m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 17:27 → ANC 20:10DL 2367	9h 01m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAX 18:00 → SEA 20:42AS 698	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703	8h 33m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:49 → SEA 14:16AS 798	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 16:49 → ANC 19:26AS 85	8h 37m	96%	68%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:56 → SEA 19:38AS 585	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 21:59 → ANC 00:42 +1AS 1471	8h 46m	97%	67%
American Details →	LAX 07:00 → DFW 12:18AA 2746	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:19 → ANC 19:34AA 399	13h 34m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 21:46 → ANC 00:35 +1DL 936	7h 50m	87%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1406	6h 53m	60%	50%
Delta Details →	LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606	47m Seattle	SEA 17:27 → ANC 20:10DL 2367	7h 10m	65%	49%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:05 → SEA 10:35AS 495	1h 04m Seattle	SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83	7h 22m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON