Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4316 LAX 14:08 → ATL 21:51 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	9%	2%	0.9%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	12%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 579 Delta	LAX 00:08	ATL 07:23	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 471 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:11	ATL 00:33	18%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	19%	7%	0.6%	82%
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	19%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:10	19%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	21%	6%	0.7%	86%
DL 8877 Delta	LAX 11:08	ATL 18:31	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:05	ATL 19:27	24%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 8878 Delta	LAX 11:38	ATL 19:01	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:49	ATL 19:11	25%	7%	0.7%	82%
AA 1141 American	LAX 09:34	ATL 17:05	29%	10%	0.8%	no record
DL 327 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:50	ATL 16:50	31%	4%	0.8%	72%
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:02	ATL 07:36	34%	8%	1.1%	65%
UA 3782 United	LAX 10:06	ATL 17:10	38%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 4316 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 14:08	ATL 21:51	42%	16%	1.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON