Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3773 LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 2119 LAX 09:26 → BOI 12:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3773 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:44	BOI 14:46	15%	6%	0.6%	89%
OO 3010 SkyWest	LAX 19:45	BOI 22:55	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 4148 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:59	BOI 22:58	17%	5%	0.6%	87%
AS 2119 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	LAX 09:26	BOI 12:38	22%	4%	1.3%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON