Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1016 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAX 05:00 → BWI 12:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4276 LAX 13:39 → BWI 21:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAX 05:00	BWI 12:56	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 08:40	BWI 16:55	14%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 22:36	BWI 06:39	15%	5%	0.7%	91%
WN 1246 Southwest	LAX 21:49	BWI 05:50	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:39	BWI 21:35	30%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 06:18 → DTW 13:38DL 2399	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	7h 23m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	59m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	7h 10m	89%	69%
Delta Details →	LAX 13:10 → MSP 18:39DL 914	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 03m	83%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON