Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 458 at 00:22, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 458 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:22	CVG 07:35	15%	3%	0.8%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:36DL 430	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	6h 55m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291	8h 05m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 28m	96%	82%
American Details →	LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:20AA 2490	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:32 → CVG 10:48AA 2610	7h 44m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:49 → ATL 19:11DL 782	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	9h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:18 → DTW 13:38DL 2399	3h 40m Detroit	DTW 17:18 → CVG 18:37DL 5060 · flown by Endeavor	9h 19m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:35 → MCO 15:35DL 482	3h 43m Orlando	MCO 19:18 → CVG 21:42DL 2824	11h 07m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 19:27 → LAS 20:38DL 2202	1h 39m Las Vegas	LAS 22:17 → CVG 05:04 +1DL 2794	6h 37m	93%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 13:41 → ORD 19:46AA 1998	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 21:02 → CVG 23:28AA 3366 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	65%	46%
Delta Details →	LAX 10:27 → DTW 17:51DL 494	46m Detroit	DTW 18:37 → CVG 19:56DL 5215 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	49%	36%
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	56m Chicago	ORD 21:36 → CVG 23:55UA 1030	6h 29m	55%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON