Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OO 6230 at 13:34, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6230 SkyWest	LAX 13:34	DSM 19:12	21%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:37DL 430	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 09:26 → DSM 10:41DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	8h 33m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:19 → DTW 13:40DL 2399	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 16:41 → DSM 17:34DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	9h 15m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 13:20 → DSM 14:35DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	98%	76%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 01m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311	7h 15m	98%	73%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	51m Houston	IAH 12:03 → DSM 14:33UA 6166 · flown by Mesa	6h 48m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	9h 52m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	9h 29m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494	3h 13m Detroit	DTW 20:21 → DSM 21:13DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor	9h 28m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457	46m Chicago	ORD 19:51 → DSM 21:09UA 1839	6h 19m	34%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON