Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 480 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 480 LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 803 LAX 10:36 → HNL 13:22 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 480 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:30	HNL 11:18	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 443 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:37	HNL 21:22	17%	5%	0.6%	84%
AS 801 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	HNL 09:54	18%	4%	1.1%	83%
DL 465 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:55	HNL 16:43	20%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 31 American Flight history →	LAX 09:40	HNL 12:51	20%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 1158 United Flight history →	LAX 09:05	HNL 11:53	20%	6%	0.6%	89%
AA 143 American Flight history →	LAX 16:26	HNL 19:45	20%	9%	0.6%	80%
UA 1224 United Flight history →	LAX 13:19	HNL 16:26	20%	7%	0.6%	84%
UA 1170 United Flight history →	LAX 17:05	HNL 19:44	20%	7%	0.5%	82%
AS 809 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:00	HNL 20:53	26%	10%	0.9%	74%
AS 888 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 21:10	HNL 00:06	27%	11%	0.9%	68%
AA 297 American Flight history →	LAX 17:19	HNL 20:25	27%	9%	0.6%	74%
WN 1056 Southwest	LAX 18:29	HNL 21:28	28%	8%	0.5%	no record
AS 556 Alaska	LAX 08:58	HNL 11:35	30%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 803 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:36	HNL 13:22	35%	9%	1.1%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 50m Kahului	OGG 13:01 → HNL 13:54AS 1105	8h 24m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:17 → KOA 11:10AS 560	1h 03m Kailua/Kona	KOA 12:13 → HNL 13:14AS 1087	7h 57m	88%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON