tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 979 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 979 LAX 06:21 → JFK 14:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 224 LAX 11:21 → JFK 19:44 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 06:21 JFK 14:26 13% 5% 1.8% 90%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 16% 7% 2.3% 85%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 16% 6% 2.0% 86%
DL 960 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:00 JFK 05:16 17% 7% 1.9% 86%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 00:12 JFK 08:15 18% 4% 1.1% 86%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:41 JFK 15:46 19% 6% 1.7% 79%
AA 10 American Flight history → LAX 21:27 JFK 06:03 20% 9% 2.1% 85%
DL 676 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:45 JFK 07:03 24% 6% 2.0% 81%
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 07:52 JFK 16:22 24% 9% 2.1% 76%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 00:00 JFK 08:22 25% 5% 1.5% 68%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 08:03 JFK 16:27 25% 8% 1.9% 80%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:30 JFK 05:01 26% 12% 2.3% 83%
AA 30 American Flight history → LAX 23:12 JFK 07:36 28% 9% 2.0% 70%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:04 JFK 17:05 29% 10% 1.7% 89%worse than usual
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 08:56 JFK 17:13 30% 11% 1.8% 93%worse than usual
DL 991 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:29 JFK 23:35 30% 15% 1.9% 78%
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:15 JFK 20:02 30% 19% 1.6% 67%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 31% 16% 1.9% 81%worse than usual
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 22:25 JFK 07:00 31% 11% 2.5% 82%worse than usual
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:56 JFK 18:02 31% 13% 1.9% 83%worse than usual
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 33% 18% 2.2% 79%worse than usual
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:28 JFK 21:00 34% 18% 1.8% 77%worse than usual
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:15 JFK 21:20 35% 22% 1.9% 74%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 13:54 JFK 22:16 35% 19% 1.7% 71%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 36% 21% 2.2% 71%
DL 939 Delta Flight history → LAX 12:24 JFK 20:24 36% 19% 1.6% 73%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:32 JFK 19:59 37% 25% 1.8% 74%worse than usual
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:27 JFK 21:56 37% 24% 2.1% 76%worse than usual
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 37% 24% 1.9% 60%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 10:17 JFK 18:36 38% 17% 1.9% 80%worse than usual
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:21 JFK 19:44 38% 18% 1.8% 82%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON