Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2373 at 09:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2373 LAX 09:08 → KOA 11:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 59 LAX 12:39 → KOA 15:32 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2373 United Flight history →	LAX 09:08	KOA 11:50	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
AS 560 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:02	KOA 10:50	14%	3%	1.0%	80%
DL 311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:44	KOA 19:17	18%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 59 American Flight history →	LAX 12:39	KOA 15:32	24%	6%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 10m Honolulu	HNL 11:04 → KOA 12:06AS 1088	8h 06m	88%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON