tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:08, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 24% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:36DL 430 1h 29m Minneapolis MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719 7h 36m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 34m Houston IAH 07:46 → LGA 12:23UA 1697 8h 32m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → LAX 01:12 → DTW 08:34DL 407 1h 31m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 7h 38m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:20AA 2490 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609 9h 09m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:31 → LGA 13:17AA 2924 9h 46m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 96% 64%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 9h 25m 100% 63%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → BOS 08:44AA 2453 3h 28m Boston BOS 12:12 → LGA 13:32AA 1489 10h 24m 99% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946 47m Chicago ORD 15:22 → LGA 18:43UA 2133 7h 28m 50% 20%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 52m Chicago ORD 17:56 → LGA 21:07UA 2458 7h 22m 42% 15%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → ORD 13:14UA 1941 46m Chicago ORD 14:00 → LGA 17:22UA 1821 7h 22m 24% 10%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON