Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1295 LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 963 LAX 08:31 → LIH 11:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1295 United Flight history →	LAX 08:45	LIH 11:44	16%	4%	0.7%	94%
DL 428 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:45	LIH 17:41	20%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 119 American Flight history →	LAX 09:19	LIH 12:38	22%	6%	0.7%	80%
AS 963 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 08:31	LIH 11:48	24%	4%	0.9%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → HNL 09:54AS 801	1h 25m Honolulu	HNL 11:19 → LIH 12:13AS 1073	8h 13m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:11AS 933	1h 05m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	7h 36m	82%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON