tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 1080 at 18:14, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1080 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:14 MEM 23:59 23% 9% 0.7% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:36DL 430 3h 34m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 9h 20m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:20AA 2490 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:04 → MEM 08:44AA 1935 6h 40m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 13:19 → MEM 17:24DL 2515 8h 09m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:10 → IAH 13:40UA 1416 2h 47m Houston IAH 16:27 → MEM 18:09UA 4054 · flown by Mesa 7h 59m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277 3h 33m Houston IAH 19:13 → MEM 20:57UA 6167 · flown by Mesa 8h 47m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:49 → ATL 19:11DL 782 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501 9h 35m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 16:50DL 327 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:59DL 2939 9h 09m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:05 → ATL 19:27DL 395 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:26DL 8930 9h 21m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:10 → IAH 15:40UA 277 47m Houston IAH 16:27 → MEM 18:09UA 4054 · flown by Mesa 5h 59m 64% 49%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 51m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 7h 11m 67% 48%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:46 → DFW 16:59AA 2890 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → MEM 19:28AA 3932 · flown by Envoy 5h 42m 61% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON