tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3125 SkyWest LAX 20:47 MFR 22:55 15% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 3403 SkyWest LAX 12:12 MFR 14:24 16% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 98% 89%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 08:05 → SEA 10:35AS 495 2h 01m Seattle SEA 12:36 → MFR 14:15AS 2052 · flown by Horizon 6h 10m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:00 → SEA 20:42AS 698 1h 51m Seattle SEA 22:33 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 6h 04m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 21:08 → MFR 22:34UA 1219 6h 20m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355 1h 01m Portland PDX 14:45 → MFR 16:02AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 81% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980 1h 15m Seattle SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 89% 71%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640 1h 08m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 82% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAX 19:00 → SEA 21:42AS 1301 51m Seattle SEA 22:33 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 5h 04m 54% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON