Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3450 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3450 LAX 05:59 → OAK 07:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 988 LAX 20:37 → OAK 22:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3450 Southwest	LAX 05:59	OAK 07:24	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1267 Southwest	LAX 01:03	OAK 02:24	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1974 Southwest	LAX 09:24	OAK 10:50	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2494 Southwest	LAX 12:22	OAK 13:46	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2495 Southwest	LAX 15:59	OAK 17:25	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2070 Southwest	LAX 18:09	OAK 19:35	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 20:37	OAK 22:03	31%	8%	0.5%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON