Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Frontier via Denver, leaving 11:43, is the safest bet: 35% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 6506 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:13	OMA 12:41	10%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 6224 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:10	OMA 23:37	16%	8%	1.0%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:01 → OMA 13:29DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:36DL 430	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	100%	85%
American Details →	LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:20AA 2490	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:53 → OMA 09:47AA 2135	7h 43m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:09 → OMA 16:37DL 2364	8h 37m	97%	75%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:27 → OMA 11:27AA 2823	8h 56m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:49 → ATL 19:11DL 782	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:54 → OMA 23:23DL 2010	9h 34m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:18 → DTW 13:38DL 2399	2h 22m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	8h 52m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	50m San Francisco	SFO 18:32 → OMA 23:58UA 2839	5h 44m	58%	42%
Frontier Details →	LAX 11:43 → DEN 15:08F9 4346	54m Denver	DEN 16:02 → OMA 18:46F9 1874	5h 03m	59%	35%
United Details →	LAX 14:26 → ORD 20:40UA 2487	51m Chicago	ORD 21:31 → OMA 23:06UA 2336	6h 40m	45%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON