Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 462 at 09:51 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 462 LAX 09:51 → RDU 17:38 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1049 LAX 15:57 → RDU 23:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:51	RDU 17:38	20%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 1754 American	LAX 09:00	RDU 16:55	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1049 American Flight history →	LAX 15:57	RDU 23:55	32%	11%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	51m Houston	IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196	7h 10m	89%	72%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:49 → ATL 19:11DL 782	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 21:59DL 3244	7h 10m	86%	68%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:18 → RDU 16:03AA 2091	7h 03m	90%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON