Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 5410 at 09:17 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 5410 LAX 09:17 → RNO 10:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1161 LAX 21:22 → RNO 22:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5410 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:17	RNO 10:56	12%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	12%	4%	0.6%	96%
DL 3929 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:38	RNO 23:17	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 5411 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:53	RNO 20:37	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	15%	6%	0.6%	91%
UA 1544 United	LAX 13:32	RNO 15:04	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1161 Southwest	LAX 21:22	RNO 22:50	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON