Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 392 LAX 09:52 → TPA 17:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 749 LAX 10:11 → TPA 18:05 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 392 United	LAX 09:52	TPA 17:43	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 910 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:34	TPA 06:16	20%	4%	0.8%	79%
DL 749 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:11	TPA 18:05	21%	5%	1.1%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	1h 13m Houston	IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353	6h 54m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515	50m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 58m	80%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON