Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 10:12, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6286 SkyWest	LAX 10:12	TUL 15:29	14%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:20AA 2490	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 06:53 → TUL 08:10AA 4063 · flown by Envoy	6h 06m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:49 → ATL 19:11DL 782	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → TUL 00:00 +1DL 2043	10h 11m	98%	81%
American Details →	LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:26 → TUL 09:44AA 2348	7h 13m	100%	79%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	3h 31m Houston	IAH 14:43 → TUL 16:34UA 6176 · flown by Mesa	8h 49m	99%	79%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 11m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	7h 29m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:20 → MSY 12:13DL 1112	2h 03m New Orleans	MSY 14:16 → TUL 16:06DL 8934	7h 46m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	7h 53m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:00 → ATL 14:35DL 515	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	9h 04m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	49m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → TUL 00:00 +1DL 2043	7h 45m	68%	56%
United Details →	LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 20:11 → TUL 22:06UA 2351	7h 16m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON