Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5025 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 5025 LGA 09:27 → AVL 11:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 4702 LGA 16:16 → AVL 18:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:27	AVL 11:25	16%	6%	4.4%	80%
AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:12	AVL 12:35	19%	7%	3.4%	76%
DL 4665 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:37	AVL 18:37	32%	17%	6.4%	69%
AA 4702 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:16	AVL 18:25	33%	16%	7.0%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON