Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5254 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 5254 LGA 09:41 → BGR 11:09 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 5396 LGA 22:11 → BGR 23:38 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:41	BGR 11:09	20%	6%	2.5%	85%
AA 4343 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:04	BGR 13:30	20%	6%	2.2%	86%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 14:58	BGR 16:25	29%	13%	3.4%	73%
DL 5396 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 22:11	BGR 23:38	32%	19%	7.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON