Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2738 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 2738 LGA 06:30 → BNA 07:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4797 LGA 16:34 → BNA 18:03 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2738 Southwest	LGA 06:30	BNA 07:55	8%	2%	1.8%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:11	BNA 08:42	12%	3%	1.9%	90%
YX 4482 Republic	LGA 08:29	BNA 10:03	15%	4%	2.1%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 10:31	BNA 12:17	21%	6%	2.1%	no record
WN 3199 Southwest	LGA 09:35	BNA 11:02	21%	5%	2.4%	no record
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:42	BNA 13:26	23%	7%	2.9%	70%
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:21	BNA 14:46	27%	11%	2.0%	82%
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:11	BNA 16:50	32%	12%	3.5%	65%
DL 1010 Delta	LGA 19:44	BNA 21:14	42%	27%	3.5%	no record
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 17:29	BNA 18:57	43%	21%	4.7%	62%
AA 2793 American	LGA 19:56	BNA 21:30	44%	32%	4.7%	no record
WN 2527 Southwest	LGA 19:44	BNA 21:14	49%	31%	5.9%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest	LGA 16:34	BNA 18:03	50%	26%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON