Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: DL 4675 at 13:32 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4675 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:32	CHA 15:26	32%	16%	3.1%	74%
DL 5276 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:07	CHA 22:27	43%	25%	5.0%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 02m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:34 → ATL 18:59DL 969	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → CHA 23:47DL 1904	7h 13m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → CHA 15:22DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	6h 22m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CHA 20:29DL 1722	7h 29m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 16:42 → CHA 17:39DL 3124	6h 40m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:13 → CHA 22:10DL 1366	7h 10m	94%	72%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → CHA 12:45AA 6004 · flown by Piedmont	6h 45m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	1h 32m Detroit	DTW 12:56 → CHA 14:40DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	5h 15m	93%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 20:50 → CHA 22:37DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	71%	52%
United Details →	LGA 16:05 → IAH 19:06UA 1794	49m Houston	IAH 19:55 → CHA 23:06UA 5094 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	53%	40%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	49m Atlanta	ATL 21:13 → CHA 22:10DL 1366	5h 10m	52%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON