Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4465 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 4465 LGA 06:59 → CMH 08:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 5681 LGA 19:55 → CMH 22:03 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4465 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:59	CMH 08:56	9%	2%	1.5%	95%
DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:22	CMH 10:19	16%	4%	2.2%	86%
YX 4381 Republic	LGA 10:42	CMH 12:39	20%	6%	2.1%	no record
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:41	CMH 13:39	25%	7%	2.7%	79%
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:57	CMH 15:51	27%	11%	2.9%	76%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:25	CMH 16:22	27%	11%	3.0%	82%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:29	CMH 19:38	34%	18%	7.2%	77%worse than usual
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	CMH 19:42	34%	19%	7.2%	75%
AA 4680 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:53	CMH 21:53	40%	26%	7.4%	67%
DL 5681 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	CMH 22:03	40%	25%	7.4%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON