Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4419 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4419 LGA 07:19 → GSO 09:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4577 LGA 21:42 → GSO 23:41 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:19	GSO 09:15	12%	4%	2.4%	85%
YX 5781 Republic	LGA 08:13	GSO 10:07	16%	5%	2.6%	no record
DL 5132 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 12:18	GSO 14:07	20%	11%	2.8%	82%
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:21	GSO 17:19	30%	14%	3.2%	67%
DL 5107 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:45	GSO 18:27	33%	18%	4.8%	69%
DL 5118 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:42	GSO 22:25	35%	22%	6.4%	64%
AA 4577 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:42	GSO 23:41	37%	18%	7.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON