tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 22% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 13:08 → LAX 14:57DL 2974 10h 02m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → BOS 09:19DL 5759 · flown by Republic 1h 36m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 9h 03m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → LGA 05:56 → DCA 07:26AA 4487 · flown by Republic 1h 14m Washington DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19AA 1966 8h 23m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:45 → DEN 09:53DL 751 2h 36m Denver DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 9h 11m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 15:11 → BNA 16:50AA 4380 · flown by Republic 47m Nashville BNA 17:37 → LAX 20:11AA 1100 8h 00m 47% 31%
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:28 → BOS 18:41AA 4724 · flown by Republic 1h 01m Boston BOS 19:42 → LAX 23:04AA 809 8h 36m 52% 26%
JetBlueDetails → LGA 16:09 → FLL 19:07B6 471 51m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:58 → LAX 22:40B6 2501 9h 31m 22% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON