Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–57%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 20:59 → MCO 23:52 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	12%	3%	1.5%	90%
AA 902 American	LGA 07:56	MCO 10:42	15%	4%	1.7%	no record
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:36	MCO 10:22	16%	5%	2.0%	89%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	24%	8%	2.6%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	27%	10%	2.2%	65%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	35%	15%	2.0%	62%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:13	MCO 17:58	41%	15%	2.1%	67%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	41%	20%	2.9%	61%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	42%	21%	2.8%	68%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	45%	26%	3.3%	59%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	57%	36%	3.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON