Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 4903 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 4903 LGA 09:00 → MEM 10:53 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 4696 LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:00	MEM 10:53	18%	6%	2.5%	82%
YX 5605 Republic	LGA 13:57	MEM 16:01	26%	10%	4.3%	no record
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:35	MEM 16:17	31%	11%	4.7%	78%
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:50	MEM 21:56	41%	20%	6.0%	85%worse than usual
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:17	MEM 22:11	43%	19%	6.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON