Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 09:50, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:50	PNS 11:49	21%	8%	1.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → PNS 12:52DL 1640	6h 53m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 51m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	7h 13m	98%	79%
American Details →	LGA 07:00 → MIA 10:15AA 1530	3h 31m Miami	MIA 13:46 → PNS 14:42AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	8h 42m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:00 → ATL 15:32DL 994	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → PNS 19:15DL 3021	7h 15m	99%	76%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 09:17 → PNS 10:06AA 2476	5h 06m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → PNS 21:32DL 3086	7h 32m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	7h 04m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	51m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → PNS 19:15DL 3021	5h 15m	63%	49%
American Details →	LGA 19:00 → MIA 22:03AA 3088	1h 05m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	55%	43%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → PNS 21:32DL 3086	5h 32m	49%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON