Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 5799 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–42%.

Safest bet that day YX 5799 LGA 07:43 → RIC 09:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5791 LGA 20:45 → RIC 22:18 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5799 Republic	LGA 07:43	RIC 09:15	15%	4%	2.1%	no record
YX 4457 Republic	LGA 08:54	RIC 10:26	17%	6%	2.4%	no record
YX 4622 Republic	LGA 10:59	RIC 12:31	20%	8%	1.9%	no record
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 10:42	RIC 12:04	23%	10%	2.3%	76%
YX 5785 Republic	LGA 15:23	RIC 16:56	32%	13%	2.5%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:43	RIC 18:29	36%	17%	6.4%	76%worse than usual
YX 5784 Republic	LGA 17:42	RIC 19:15	40%	19%	7.5%	no record
AA 4345 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:29	RIC 22:58	41%	20%	7.5%	67%
YX 5791 Republic	LGA 20:45	RIC 22:18	42%	22%	7.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON