Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5340 at 10:19 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5340 LGA 10:19 → ROC 11:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 5417 LGA 22:22 → ROC 23:43 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5340 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 10:19	ROC 11:34	16%	7%	2.2%	81%
9E 5054 Endeavor	LGA 15:53	ROC 17:09	25%	14%	3.8%	no record
DL 5417 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 22:22	ROC 23:43	29%	19%	6.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON