Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 10:28, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2412 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:28	SRQ 13:33	20%	6%	3.5%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104	6h 25m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115	7h 22m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	7h 45m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:59 → ATL 16:30DL 988	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057	7h 32m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	7h 17m	98%	78%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328	7h 25m	99%	76%
American Details →	LGA 05:56 → DCA 07:26AA 4487 · flown by Republic	1h 25m Washington	DCA 08:51 → SRQ 11:39AA 2584	5h 43m	97%	75%
American Details →	LGA 07:08 → DFW 09:51AA 1987	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → SRQ 16:02AA 2679	8h 54m	97%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 16:34 → ATL 18:59DL 969	54m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057	4h 57m	49%	40%
American Details →	LGA 19:00 → MIA 22:03AA 3088	51m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	4h 59m	41%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON