Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2549 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 2549 LGA 06:04 → STL 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2552 LGA 18:44 → STL 20:31 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2549 Southwest	LGA 06:04	STL 07:49	6%	2%	1.5%	no record
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 06:25	STL 08:13	9%	4%	2.0%	89%
YX 4340 Republic	LGA 07:03	STL 08:50	13%	4%	2.2%	no record
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 10:10	STL 11:53	20%	8%	2.2%	80%
WN 2550 Southwest	LGA 12:07	STL 13:53	25%	7%	1.7%	no record
YX 4608 Republic	LGA 14:05	STL 16:02	28%	11%	2.7%	no record
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 15:02	STL 16:44	29%	13%	2.7%	65%
WN 2551 Southwest	LGA 15:02	STL 16:48	37%	14%	1.7%	no record
DL 4926 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 18:41	STL 20:30	39%	25%	4.9%	70%
AA 4728 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	STL 20:55	43%	23%	5.1%	67%
WN 2552 Southwest	LGA 18:44	STL 20:31	48%	25%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON