Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	6h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	6h 53m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	7h 29m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:04DL 2170	7h 04m	98%	78%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA	7h 29m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	7h 17m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	6h 49m	92%	76%
American Details →	LGA 05:57 → DFW 08:50AA 1597	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:44 → VPS 11:49AA 3089	6h 52m	88%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 19:00 → MIA 22:03AA 3088	1h 07m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	56%	44%
Delta Details →	LGA 18:59 → ATL 22:24DL 970	51m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	5h 30m	51%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON