Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 971 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 08:16	OGG 10:52	14%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LGB 07:30 → HNL 10:31AS 869	2h 06m Honolulu	HNL 12:37 → OGG 13:30AS 1096	9h 00m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LGB 07:30 → HNL 10:31AS 869	53m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	7h 37m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON