Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1169 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1169 LGB 06:54 → SLC 09:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1450 LGB 18:04 → SLC 20:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1169 Delta	LGB 06:54	SLC 09:43	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 3793 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LGB 16:55	SLC 19:58	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 1381 Southwest	LGB 08:54	SLC 11:45	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	LGB 13:00	SLC 15:49	14%	5%	0.8%	87%
WN 1450 Southwest	LGB 18:04	SLC 20:55	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON