Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2586 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2586 LIH 06:14 → HNL 07:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1084 LIH 12:39 → HNL 13:31 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2586 Southwest	LIH 06:14	HNL 07:09	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2587 Southwest	LIH 08:19	HNL 09:14	6%	1%	0.9%	no record
AS 1004 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 06:00	HNL 06:36	10%	2%	1.9%	95%
AS 1014 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 07:12	HNL 07:48	11%	4%	2.2%	94%
WN 2588 Southwest	LIH 11:49	HNL 12:44	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1024 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:22	HNL 08:59	12%	3%	2.2%	87%
WN 2590 Southwest	LIH 19:04	HNL 19:59	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2589 Southwest	LIH 15:44	HNL 16:39	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1154 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 18:21	HNL 19:13	19%	5%	1.8%	78%
AS 1144 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:50	HNL 18:42	22%	6%	1.6%	78%
AS 1174 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:54	HNL 20:46	23%	6%	1.6%	83%
AS 1034 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:04	HNL 09:42	24%	4%	1.8%	88%worse than usual
AS 1124 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:13	HNL 17:05	24%	7%	1.8%	77%
AS 1134 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:00	HNL 17:52	24%	8%	1.6%	77%
AS 1184 Alaska	LIH 20:46	HNL 21:38	24%	6%	1.6%	no record
AS 1064 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:00	HNL 11:52	25%	5%	2.0%	77%
AS 1074 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:47	HNL 12:39	25%	4%	2.0%	79%
AS 1054 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:19	HNL 11:11	26%	5%	2.0%	84%
AS 1044 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:46	HNL 10:24	27%	4%	1.9%	85%worse than usual
AS 1094 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:26	HNL 14:18	31%	7%	1.9%	53%
AS 1084 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:39	HNL 13:31	33%	6%	2.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON