Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	21%	5%	0.8%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	2h 32m Honolulu	HNL 09:08 → KOA 10:10AS 1068	4h 10m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	2h 13m Honolulu	HNL 10:01 → KOA 11:03AS 1078	3h 51m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	3h 01m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 45m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 11:04 → KOA 12:06AS 1088	3h 44m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 16:13 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	5h 37m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:47 → HNL 12:40AS 1074	3h 46m Honolulu	HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:29AS 9950	5h 42m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 04m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:30AS 1128	4h 44m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034	1h 52m Honolulu	HNL 11:34 → KOA 12:36AS 1098	3h 32m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:00 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	52m Honolulu	HNL 18:45 → KOA 19:31AS 1168	2h 31m	64%	51%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:19 → HNL 11:12AS 1054	49m Honolulu	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	2h 44m	42%	31%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:47 → HNL 12:40AS 1074	48m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:30AS 1128	2h 43m	37%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON