Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2612 Southwest	LIH 12:15	OAK 20:28	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 968 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:40	OAK 21:06	18%	4%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	1h 15m Kahului	OGG 12:17 → OAK 20:19AS 924	7h 25m	92%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 41m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → OAK 20:42AS 848	9h 20m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:00 → HNL 11:53AS 1064	47m Honolulu	HNL 12:40 → OAK 20:42AS 848	6h 42m	35%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON