Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AS 1150 at 09:54 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day AS 1150 LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 1260 LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1150 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:54	OGG 11:01	17%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 2593 Southwest	LIH 13:29	OGG 14:39	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1260 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:30	OGG 15:19	28%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON