Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 901 Alaska	LIH 12:21	PDX 21:13	19%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:00 → HNL 17:52AS 1134	3h 50m Honolulu	HNL 21:42 → PDX 06:45 +1AS 879	10h 45m	99%	78%
United Details →	LIH 12:48 → SFO 21:06UA 1112	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 22:33 → PDX 00:26 +1UA 8182	8h 38m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 28m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 19:54 → HNL 20:46AS 1174	56m Honolulu	HNL 21:42 → PDX 06:45 +1AS 879	7h 51m	72%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON