Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 32% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 228 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:46	SAN 19:24	24%	5%	1.1%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 17:50 → HNL 18:43AS 1144	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 21:59 → SAN 06:29 +1AS 93	9h 39m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	7h 49m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 45m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:00 → HNL 11:53AS 1064	46m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	7h 07m	32%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON