Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:54, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:54 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	2h 55m Kahului	OGG 13:57 → SMF 22:03AS 960	9h 08m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 12m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 57m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	1h 15m San Diego	SAN 20:39 → SMF 22:20AS 428	8h 34m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:19 → HNL 11:12AS 1054	59m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	7h 00m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON