Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 4939 at 09:20, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4939 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 09:20	PHX 09:23	22%	11%	1.4%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MAF 04:54 → DFW 06:15AA 3643 · flown by Envoy	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:45 → PHX 10:23AA 2605	7h 29m	100%	74%
United Details →	MAF 04:59 → IAH 06:39UA 6351 · flown by Mesa	3h 23m Houston	IAH 10:02 → PHX 10:54UA 1895	7h 55m	95%	71%
American Details →	MAF 05:56 → DFW 07:17AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:08 → PHX 11:42AA 2103	7h 46m	99%	71%
United Details →	MAF 07:32 → DEN 08:49UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Denver	DEN 10:04 → PHX 11:06UA 1782	5h 34m	90%	71%
American Details →	MAF 07:54 → DFW 09:15AA 3352 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:34 → PHX 12:16AA 2155	6h 22m	98%	69%
United Details →	MAF 15:47 → IAH 17:28UA 4061 · flown by Mesa	2h 25m Houston	IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078	6h 55m	96%	67%
United Details →	MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Denver	DEN 18:27 → PHX 19:28UA 1507	7h 43m	97%	62%
American Details →	MAF 18:40 → DFW 20:05AA 6199 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → PHX 23:35AA 1931	6h 55m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON