Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1297 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1297 MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1629 MCI 18:29 → CLT 21:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1297 American Flight history →	MCI 06:31	CLT 10:00	9%	4%	1.3%	93%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	MCI 10:19	CLT 13:33	13%	4%	1.1%	76%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 13:59	CLT 17:17	19%	6%	1.1%	84%
AA 1629 American	MCI 18:29	CLT 21:44	27%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON