tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: G4 487 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 487 Allegiant MCI 09:15 FLL 13:18 22% 9% 1.6% no record
WN 3518 Southwest MCI 15:19 FLL 19:20 33% 10% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 6h 41m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 56m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 6h 02m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → FLL 14:58DL 1341 6h 58m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:57 → FLL 16:08UA 1214 9h 08m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740 1h 57m Houston IAH 10:22 → FLL 14:14UA 2670 6h 58m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 8h 09m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 11:09 → FLL 13:21AA 1484 5h 50m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 41m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON