Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3658 at 15:33, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3658 Southwest	MCI 15:33	IND 18:11	18%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:07 → IND 11:46DL 2952	5h 07m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → IND 13:32DL 3013	5h 32m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	6h 19m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:22 → ATL 19:36DL 1443	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	7h 19m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	56m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	4h 05m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:19 → ATL 17:33DL 2747	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → IND 22:08DL 1482	6h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:22 → ATL 13:36DL 2471	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:57 → IND 17:35DL 2979	6h 13m	99%	80%
American Details →	MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00AA 1297	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → IND 13:22AA 3044	5h 51m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491	48m Chicago	ORD 10:33 → IND 12:44UA 473	3h 51m	64%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON