Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4365 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4365 MCI 05:59 → PHX 06:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2654 MCI 19:39 → PHX 20:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4365 Southwest	MCI 05:59	PHX 06:47	7%	2%	2.4%	no record
WN 2652 Southwest	MCI 08:44	PHX 09:32	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2645 American Flight history →	MCI 06:55	PHX 07:49	16%	6%	2.5%	92%
WN 3332 Southwest	MCI 13:28	PHX 14:17	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1635 American	MCI 14:34	PHX 15:39	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 2655 Southwest	MCI 22:04	PHX 22:51	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 2654 Southwest	MCI 19:39	PHX 20:26	28%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON